Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 1655 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 1655 PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2210 PHX 17:31 → DFW 22:02 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1655 American Flight history →	PHX 05:10	DFW 09:45	4%	2%	0.6%	91%
AA 1018 American Flight history →	PHX 06:10	DFW 10:42	6%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 1139 American Flight history →	PHX 07:30	DFW 12:06	8%	3%	0.6%	93%
F9 2532 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 06:24	DFW 10:53	9%	5%	0.7%	83%
AA 2719 American Flight history →	PHX 08:30	DFW 13:05	9%	3%	0.6%	87%
AA 3284 American Flight history →	PHX 10:31	DFW 15:10	11%	4%	0.6%	88%
AA 2905 American	PHX 12:12	DFW 16:46	12%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 556 American Flight history →	PHX 18:51	DFW 23:30	13%	5%	0.7%	88%
F9 3972 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 16:39	DFW 21:18	15%	6%	0.7%	80%
AA 2902 American	PHX 13:08	DFW 17:42	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 454 American	PHX 14:08	DFW 18:30	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1663 American Flight history →	PHX 16:15	DFW 20:53	19%	6%	0.6%	65%
AA 2210 American Flight history →	PHX 17:31	DFW 22:02	19%	5%	0.7%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON