Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 947 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–15%.

Safest bet that day DL 947 PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1728 PHX 09:42 → DTW 16:33 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 947 Delta Flight history →	PHX 06:00	DTW 12:48	5%	1%	0.6%	91%
DL 1566 Delta Flight history →	PHX 23:04	DTW 05:46	10%	3%	0.6%	77%
DL 1070 Delta Flight history →	PHX 12:38	DTW 19:15	11%	2%	0.6%	85%
F9 4392 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 07:38	DTW 14:46	11%	4%	0.7%	67%
AA 1728 American Flight history →	PHX 09:42	DTW 16:33	15%	2%	0.6%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON