Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4979 at 08:52 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 4979 PHX 08:52 → ELP 11:12 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3954 PHX 17:00 → ELP 19:16 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4979 Southwest	PHX 08:52	ELP 11:12	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
OO 4907 SkyWest	PHX 09:42	ELP 12:05	11%	4%	0.5%	no record
OO 4971 SkyWest	PHX 12:32	ELP 15:04	12%	5%	0.5%	no record
AA 6369 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 19:04	ELP 21:30	16%	4%	0.6%	70%
WN 428 Southwest	PHX 14:22	ELP 16:38	17%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 3954 Southwest	PHX 17:00	ELP 19:16	22%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON