tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
MQ 4097 Envoy PHX 11:16 EUG 13:57 10% 3% 0.6% no record
MQ 4133 Envoy PHX 16:39 EUG 19:13 11% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 09:45 → SLC 12:21DL 1447 2h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 15:02 → EUG 16:02DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest 6h 17m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → PHX 15:54 → SEA 19:02DL 2449 3h 33m Seattle SEA 22:35 → EUG 23:51DL 3855 · flown by SkyWest 7h 57m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 2h 23m Denver DEN 11:15 → EUG 12:57UA 318 6h 57m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHX 11:03 → SFO 13:09UA 2619 3h 09m San Francisco SFO 16:18 → EUG 17:57UA 502 6h 54m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:22 → DEN 16:10UA 709 3h 25m Denver DEN 19:35 → EUG 21:21UA 1303 7h 59m 100% 81%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 07:05 → SJC 09:08WN 4286 1h 28m San Jose SJC 10:36 → EUG 12:11WN 3583 5h 06m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:43 → SEA 09:42DL 2444 1h 48m Seattle SEA 11:30 → EUG 12:58DL 4149 · flown by SkyWest 6h 15m 94% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON