Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 1222 at 06:33 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–15%.

Safest bet that day UA 1222 PHX 06:33 → EWR 14:16 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest UA 2796 PHX 11:43 → EWR 19:28 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1222 United Flight history →	PHX 06:33	EWR 14:16	5%	1%	0.6%	100%
UA 8101 United	PHX 22:43	EWR 06:23	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2078 United Flight history →	PHX 00:03	EWR 07:40	7%	2%	0.6%	86%
AA 1327 American	PHX 08:31	EWR 16:16	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2291 United	PHX 13:30	EWR 21:07	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2188 United	PHX 10:31	EWR 18:19	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1967 American Flight history →	PHX 16:10	EWR 23:59	15%	4%	0.7%	71%
UA 2796 United	PHX 11:43	EWR 19:28	19%	5%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947	1h 22m Detroit	DTW 14:10 → EWR 15:54DL 2573	6h 54m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	PHX 14:19 → MSP 19:10DL 2208	1h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846	6h 37m	92%	84%
United Details →	PHX 08:51 → ORD 14:20UA 1124	58m Chicago	ORD 15:18 → EWR 18:35UA 1236	6h 44m	88%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON