Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 6359 PHX 07:19 → FAT 09:04 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1919 PHX 14:11 → FAT 16:00 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 6359 SkyWest	PHX 07:19	FAT 09:04	7%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2396 American Flight history →	PHX 10:36	FAT 12:37	10%	4%	0.6%	80%
AA 6317 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 17:29	FAT 19:12	13%	5%	0.5%	77%
AA 1919 American	PHX 14:11	FAT 16:00	16%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON