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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: United via Newark, leaving 00:03, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PHX 00:03 → EWR 07:59UA 2078 3h 54m Newark EWR 11:53 → FLL 15:14UA 2759 12h 11m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 1h 17m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → FLL 15:41DL 1413 6h 56m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 58m Denver DEN 09:50 → FLL 15:54UA 1214 6h 54m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947 3h 08m Detroit DTW 15:56 → FLL 19:00DL 1037 10h 00m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → PHX 12:38 → DTW 19:15DL 1070 1h 29m Detroit DTW 20:44 → FLL 23:42DL 2296 8h 04m 96% 84%
AmericanDetails → PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45AA 1655 1h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:11 → FLL 15:02AA 1390 6h 52m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → JFK 13:59DL 546 1h 31m New York JFK 15:30 → FLL 18:54DL 1419 9h 54m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 1h 54m Denver DEN 13:54 → FLL 20:03UA 1384 7h 55m 98% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON