Today: WN 933 at 20:26 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–36%.

Safest bet today WN 933 PHX 20:26 → GEG 23:09 · 22% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2876 PHX 17:08 → GEG 19:53 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 933 Southwest	PHX 20:26	GEG 23:09	22%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 540 American Flight history →	PHX 10:36	GEG 13:33	24%	4%	0.2%	75%
WN 2327 Southwest	PHX 18:00	GEG 20:47	30%	4%	0.4%	no record
AA 2876 American Flight history →	PHX 17:08	GEG 19:53	36%	8%	0.2%	78%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON