Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 6491 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 16:30	GJT 19:05	8%	2%	0.5%	85%
OO 4996 SkyWest	PHX 09:10	GJT 11:36	9%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Junction on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Grand Junction is 1 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45AA 1655	1h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:21 → GJT 12:42AA 3592 · flown by Envoy	6h 32m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	PHX 17:05 → SLC 19:43DL 1738	1h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:50 → GJT 21:55DL 4234 · flown by SkyWest	3h 50m	95%	91%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	2h 32m Denver	DEN 11:24 → GJT 12:31UA 1714	5h 31m	99%	90%
United Details →	PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597	1h 25m Denver	DEN 13:25 → GJT 14:40UA 5488 · flown by SkyWest	4h 32m	96%	86%
United Details →	PHX 13:22 → DEN 16:10UA 709	3h 15m Denver	DEN 19:25 → GJT 20:34UA 431	6h 12m	100%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON