Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:16 pm at Phoenix); 4 already left

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via LAX, leaving 16:02, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 16:02 → LAX 17:34DL 3894 · flown by SkyWest	1h 03m Los Angeles	LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443	8h 20m	89%	76%
Alaska Details →	PHX 16:11 → SEA 19:03AS 401	2h 00m Seattle	SEA 21:03 → HNL 23:53AS 901	10h 42m	96%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON