Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4077 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18%.

Safest bet that day WN 4077 PHX 06:09 → HOU 10:45 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1386 PHX 17:40 → HOU 22:10 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4077 Southwest	PHX 06:09	HOU 10:45	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4718 Southwest	PHX 09:28	HOU 14:05	14%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 799 Southwest	PHX 13:10	HOU 17:38	16%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2267 Southwest	PHX 16:10	HOU 20:41	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1386 Southwest	PHX 17:40	HOU 22:10	18%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON