Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1885 at 18:39 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 13–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 1885 PHX 18:39 → IAH 23:20 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 2357 PHX 08:46 → IAH 13:26 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1885 United Flight history →	PHX 18:39	IAH 23:20	12%	6%	0.6%	80%
UA 1397 United	PHX 08:31	IAH 13:12	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1481 United	PHX 10:22	IAH 15:02	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2198 United Flight history →	PHX 16:12	IAH 20:55	15%	5%	0.6%	79%
UA 1373 United Flight history →	PHX 12:20	IAH 17:03	15%	3%	0.6%	80%
MQ 3681 Envoy	PHX 12:44	IAH 17:28	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 1704 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 12:27	IAH 17:11	20%	6%	0.7%	83%
AA 2357 American Flight history →	PHX 08:46	IAH 13:26	24%	5%	1.2%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON