Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:06 am at Phoenix)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 6226 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 08:30	ICT 13:07	14%	4%	0.3%	77%
MQ 3570 Envoy	PHX 19:46	ICT 00:07	18%	3%	0.8%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wichita on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Wichita is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597	1h 59m Denver	DEN 13:59 → ICT 16:34UA 5454 · flown by SkyWest	5h 26m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553	1h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 13:29 → ICT 15:39DL 3807 · flown by SkyWest	6h 54m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	PHX 07:15 → ATL 14:00DL 901	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 16:43 → ICT 18:02DL 1418	8h 47m	96%	85%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	1h 03m Denver	DEN 09:55 → ICT 12:27UA 5497 · flown by SkyWest	4h 27m	96%	84%
United Details →	PHX 16:25 → DEN 19:21UA 624	1h 44m Denver	DEN 21:05 → ICT 23:40UA 4755 · flown by SkyWest	5h 15m	92%	84%
American Details →	PHX 07:00 → ORD 12:51AA 2765	2h 33m Chicago	ORD 15:24 → ICT 17:44AA 6287 · flown by SkyWest	8h 44m	100%	83%
United Details →	PHX 11:56 → DEN 15:07UA 1615	2h 34m Denver	DEN 17:41 → ICT 20:15UA 1788	6h 19m	97%	82%
American Details →	PHX 06:10 → DFW 10:42AA 1018	3h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:23 → ICT 15:50AA 2304	7h 40m	99%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON