tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Jacksonville on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947 2h 14m Detroit DTW 15:02 → JAX 17:27DL 2994 8h 27m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → PHX 00:09 → MIA 07:30AA 2263 1h 58m Miami MIA 09:28 → JAX 10:56AA 2711 7h 47m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 1h 32m Denver DEN 10:24 → JAX 16:00UA 1451 7h 00m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 1h 29m Atlanta ATL 13:57 → JAX 15:09DL 2990 6h 24m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → PHX 10:15 → CLT 17:20AA 1676 3h 53m Charlotte CLT 21:13 → JAX 22:37AA 1759 9h 22m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → PHX 08:50 → IAD 16:17UA 1873 1h 36m Dulles IAD 17:53 → JAX 20:08UA 293 8h 18m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45AA 1655 3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:50 → JAX 16:21AA 1472 8h 11m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 20:52 → JAX 22:06DL 2189 8h 52m 99% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON