Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 546 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–15%.

Safest bet that day DL 546 PHX 06:00 → JFK 13:59 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 136 PHX 13:34 → JFK 21:22 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 546 Delta Flight history →	PHX 06:00	JFK 13:59	4%	2%	0.6%	93%
AA 1587 American Flight history →	PHX 21:50	JFK 05:47	6%	2%	0.7%	87%
AA 636 American Flight history →	PHX 07:00	JFK 14:59	6%	2%	0.7%	89%
AA 2339 American Flight history →	PHX 09:54	JFK 17:59	11%	3%	0.7%	87%
DL 791 Delta Flight history →	PHX 11:40	JFK 20:01	13%	3%	0.6%	80%
AA 832 American Flight history →	PHX 15:51	JFK 23:58	13%	3%	0.7%	76%
AA 475 American	PHX 12:45	JFK 20:18	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
B6 136 JetBlue Flight history →	PHX 13:34	JFK 21:22	15%	4%	0.7%	76%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHX 14:19 → MSP 19:10DL 2208	1h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 20:22 → JFK 00:02 +1DL 2692	6h 43m	95%	85%
American Details →	PHX 05:04 → ORD 10:19AA 3062	1h 02m Chicago	ORD 11:21 → JFK 14:37AA 3225	6h 33m	95%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON