Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 3207 at 05:44 is the safest bet, 1% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–13%.

Safest bet that day WN 3207 PHX 05:44 → LAS 07:02 · 1% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 457 PHX 11:24 → LAS 12:37 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3207 Southwest	PHX 05:44	LAS 07:02	1%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2120 Southwest	PHX 06:53	LAS 08:08	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 279 Southwest	PHX 08:14	LAS 09:17	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 1956 American	PHX 07:10	LAS 08:23	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 513 Southwest	PHX 10:00	LAS 11:09	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
F9 1019 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 08:21	LAS 09:45	7%	5%	0.8%	84%
WN 9001 Southwest	PHX 15:02	LAS 16:22	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
F9 1895 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 20:33	LAS 22:00	8%	6%	1.0%	82%
WN 4949 Southwest	PHX 18:00	LAS 19:18	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4355 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 19:54	LAS 21:10	9%	3%	0.6%	92%
F9 4113 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 00:17	LAS 01:30	10%	6%	0.8%	69%
WN 107 Southwest	PHX 11:08	LAS 12:14	10%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 2109 American Flight history →	PHX 10:38	LAS 11:53	10%	3%	0.6%	82%
AA 2631 American	PHX 13:44	LAS 15:05	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 295 Southwest	PHX 16:27	LAS 17:47	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3209 Southwest	PHX 13:53	LAS 14:59	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1505 American	PHX 17:12	LAS 18:40	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 457 American	PHX 11:24	LAS 12:37	14%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON