Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 4057 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 4057 PHX 06:00 → LAX 07:32 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 4278 PHX 19:53 → LAX 21:14 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4057 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 06:00	LAX 07:32	4%	2%	0.6%	97%
DL 3951 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 12:15	LAX 13:46	7%	3%	0.6%	87%
OO 5335 SkyWest	PHX 13:39	LAX 15:12	7%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 5939 SkyWest	PHX 06:35	LAX 08:09	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2388 American	PHX 07:03	LAX 08:40	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3211 Southwest	PHX 07:18	LAX 08:42	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 4119 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 10:37	LAX 12:08	8%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 3894 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 16:02	LAX 17:34	9%	3%	0.6%	86%
AA 2027 American	PHX 10:40	LAX 12:12	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2318 United	PHX 07:44	LAX 09:17	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1892 American Flight history →	PHX 08:00	LAX 09:34	11%	3%	0.6%	88%
F9 2133 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 19:13	LAX 20:53	11%	5%	1.2%	75%
AA 1362 American Flight history →	PHX 14:01	LAX 15:35	11%	3%	0.6%	85%
WN 188 Southwest	PHX 12:28	LAX 13:50	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1331 American Flight history →	PHX 17:23	LAX 18:55	15%	4%	0.6%	65%
WN 4690 Southwest	PHX 16:10	LAX 17:34	19%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4278 Southwest	PHX 19:53	LAX 21:14	21%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON