Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3316 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 3316 PHX 08:20 → LGB 09:46 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 550 PHX 19:24 → LGB 20:46 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3316 Southwest	PHX 08:20	LGB 09:46	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4982 Southwest	PHX 09:17	LGB 10:43	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3213 Southwest	PHX 12:07	LGB 13:30	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3214 Southwest	PHX 15:41	LGB 17:17	18%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 550 Southwest	PHX 19:24	LGB 20:46	20%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON