Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 4329 at 15:50, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 4329 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 15:50	LIT 20:47	12%	3%	0.6%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Little Rock on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Little Rock is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 14:40 → LIT 15:12DL 3027	7h 27m	99%	90%
American Details →	PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45AA 1655	1h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:41 → LIT 13:02AA 3898 · flown by Envoy	5h 52m	98%	90%
American Details →	PHX 07:30 → DFW 12:06AA 1139	3h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:33 → LIT 16:54AA 4309 · flown by Envoy	7h 24m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	PHX 07:15 → ATL 14:00DL 901	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → LIT 18:23DL 2061	9h 08m	98%	87%
American Details →	PHX 10:15 → CLT 17:20AA 1676	3h 05m Charlotte	CLT 20:25 → LIT 21:38AA 3692 · flown by Envoy	9h 23m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → LIT 21:35DL 2701	9h 21m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	PHX 09:45 → SLC 12:21DL 1447	57m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:18 → LIT 17:20DL 4052 · flown by SkyWest	5h 35m	92%	85%
United Details →	PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597	1h 20m Denver	DEN 13:20 → LIT 16:42UA 5760 · flown by SkyWest	5h 34m	95%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON