tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 4892 at 19:00, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4892 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → PHX 19:00 MAF 22:48 18% 8% 0.6% 71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Midland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Midland is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PHX 07:30 → DFW 12:06AA 1139 3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:36 → MAF 16:53AA 3653 · flown by Envoy 7h 23m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → PHX 10:31 → DFW 15:10AA 3284 3h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:37 → MAF 20:03AA 4279 · flown by Envoy 7h 32m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:22 → DEN 16:10UA 709 2h 57m Denver DEN 19:07 → MAF 22:11UA 4732 · flown by SkyWest 6h 49m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 1h 13m Denver DEN 10:05 → MAF 12:59UA 5333 · flown by SkyWest 4h 59m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHX 12:20 → IAH 17:03UA 1373 2h 49m Houston IAH 19:52 → MAF 21:42UA 6276 · flown by Mesa 7h 22m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → PHX 16:12 → IAH 20:55UA 2198 1h 03m Houston IAH 21:58 → MAF 23:37UA 1592 5h 25m 88% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON