Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 8–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3552 PHX 09:07 → MCI 13:34 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3217 PHX 18:29 → MCI 22:49 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3552 Southwest	PHX 09:07	MCI 13:34	8%	1%	0.4%	no record
AA 1622 American Flight history →	PHX 10:41	MCI 15:28	10%	3%	0.6%	91%
WN 1287 Southwest	PHX 11:47	MCI 16:14	13%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 2324 Southwest	PHX 14:53	MCI 19:24	13%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 3217 Southwest	PHX 18:29	MCI 22:49	14%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON