Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 3219 at 23:06 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 3219 PHX 23:06 → MCO 06:00 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 603 PHX 10:06 → MCO 17:34 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3219 Southwest	PHX 23:06	MCO 06:00	10%	3%	1.2%	no record
WN 3218 Southwest	PHX 11:31	MCO 18:32	21%	6%	1.8%	no record
AA 603 American	PHX 10:06	MCO 17:34	22%	7%	2.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON