Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4363 at 06:39 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 4363 PHX 06:39 → MDW 12:03 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1129 PHX 18:40 → MDW 23:40 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4363 Southwest	PHX 06:39	MDW 12:03	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3224 Southwest	PHX 00:34	MDW 05:58	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3427 Southwest	PHX 08:35	MDW 13:45	10%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4663 Southwest	PHX 10:12	MDW 15:26	13%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2824 Southwest	PHX 12:30	MDW 17:46	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4978 Southwest	PHX 17:01	MDW 22:18	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1129 Southwest	PHX 18:40	MDW 23:40	22%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON