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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Memphis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 1h 49m Denver DEN 10:41 → MEM 14:07UA 2789 6h 07m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 15:08 → MEM 15:30DL 1700 7h 45m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 3h 55m Minneapolis MSP 15:45 → MEM 17:52DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest 9h 07m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45AA 1655 2h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:38 → MEM 14:15AA 3888 · flown by Envoy 7h 05m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → PHX 09:45 → SLC 12:21DL 1447 1h 19m Salt Lake City SLC 13:40 → MEM 17:40DL 2515 5h 55m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHX 07:15 → ATL 14:00DL 901 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 16:37 → MEM 17:02DL 1681 7h 47m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → PHX 01:15 → ORD 06:50AA 1148 1h 13m Chicago ORD 08:03 → MEM 09:45AA 3959 · flown by Envoy 6h 30m 93% 85%
AmericanDetails → PHX 05:00 → CLT 12:09AA 3009 2h 03m Charlotte CLT 14:12 → MEM 14:54AA 2852 7h 54m 99% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON