tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 6240 SkyWest PHX 11:05 MFR 13:27 13% 4% 0.6% no record
AA 6373 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → PHX 17:01 MFR 19:33 14% 3% 0.7% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Medford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 17:05 → SLC 19:43DL 1738 3h 16m Salt Lake City SLC 22:59 → MFR 23:54DL 3722 · flown by SkyWest 6h 49m 99% 95%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535 2h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → MFR 11:40DL 3806 · flown by SkyWest 5h 40m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → PHX 15:54 → SEA 19:02DL 2449 2h 33m Seattle SEA 21:35 → MFR 23:11DL 3954 · flown by SkyWest 7h 17m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 2h 28m Denver DEN 11:20 → MFR 13:05UA 337 7h 05m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHX 11:03 → SFO 13:09UA 2619 3h 41m San Francisco SFO 16:50 → MFR 18:15UA 1001 7h 12m 100% 84%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 11:38 → PDX 14:03AS 511 3h 42m Portland PDX 17:45 → MFR 18:48AS 2163 · flown by Horizon 7h 10m 100% 84%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 16:32 → SEA 19:17AS 401 3h 23m Seattle SEA 22:40 → MFR 00:04 +1AS 2461 · flown by Horizon 7h 32m 99% 84%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 12:14 → SEA 14:50AS 637 2h 57m Seattle SEA 17:47 → MFR 19:13AS 2037 · flown by Horizon 6h 59m 97% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON