Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2263 at 00:06 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 2263 PHX 00:06 → MIA 07:30 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AA 404 PHX 12:11 → MIA 20:02 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2263 American Flight history →	PHX 00:06	MIA 07:30	8%	3%	0.7%	100%
AA 2654 American Flight history →	PHX 23:05	MIA 06:28	9%	3%	0.8%	80%
AA 1968 American Flight history →	PHX 08:58	MIA 16:34	14%	4%	0.7%	88%
AA 1222 American	PHX 15:52	MIA 23:29	18%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 404 American	PHX 12:11	MIA 20:02	20%	6%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	PHX 08:30 → DFW 13:05AA 2719	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:59 → MIA 17:57AA 9784	6h 27m	89%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON