Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 4965 PHX 20:13 → MRY 22:15 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4974 PHX 14:15 → MRY 16:18 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 4965 SkyWest	PHX 20:13	MRY 22:15	11%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 6348 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 07:34	MRY 09:47	12%	6%	0.7%	65%
MQ 3527 Envoy	PHX 11:07	MRY 13:03	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
OO 6325 SkyWest	PHX 10:06	MRY 12:14	15%	7%	0.6%	no record
OO 4974 SkyWest	PHX 14:15	MRY 16:18	16%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON