Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1734 at 08:37 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 1734 PHX 08:37 → MSN 14:11 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1835 PHX 16:15 → MSN 21:38 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1734 American	PHX 08:37	MSN 14:11	16%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1670 American Flight history →	PHX 08:43	MSN 13:58	16%	4%	0.8%	89%
AA 1835 American Flight history →	PHX 16:15	MSN 21:38	35%	9%	0.8%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON