Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2553 PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 408 PHX 09:28 → MSP 14:43 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2553 Delta Flight history →	PHX 06:45	MSP 11:50	5%	2%	0.6%	95%
DL 1047 Delta Flight history →	PHX 09:42	MSP 14:45	7%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 2274 Delta Flight history →	PHX 13:51	MSP 19:00	8%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 2208 Delta Flight history →	PHX 14:19	MSP 19:10	9%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 2284 Delta Flight history →	PHX 17:17	MSP 22:29	10%	4%	0.6%	84%
AA 408 American Flight history →	PHX 09:28	MSP 14:43	11%	4%	0.6%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON