Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 3629 at 12:09, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3629 Southwest	PHX 12:09	MSY 17:05	19%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → JFK 13:59DL 546	1h 32m New York	JFK 15:31 → MSY 18:02DL 1387	10h 02m	98%	90%
American Details →	PHX 00:00 → MIA 07:23AA 2263	1h 28m Miami	MIA 08:51 → MSY 10:10AA 2566	8h 10m	100%	89%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	58m Denver	DEN 09:50 → MSY 13:39UA 2273	5h 39m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535	48m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:25 → MSY 13:47DL 2100	5h 47m	94%	88%
Delta Details →	PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918	1h 17m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157	6h 32m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553	55m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695	6h 40m	94%	86%
Delta Details →	PHX 10:37 → LAX 12:08DL 4119 · flown by SkyWest	3h 52m Los Angeles	LAX 16:00 → MSY 21:51DL 2154	9h 14m	100%	86%
American Details →	PHX 01:15 → ORD 06:50AA 1148	1h 43m Chicago	ORD 08:33 → MSY 10:51AA 4040 · flown by Envoy	7h 36m	98%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON