Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 8505 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 8505 PHX 05:10 → OAK 07:13 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1133 PHX 12:03 → OAK 13:56 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 8505 Southwest	PHX 05:10	OAK 07:13	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3434 Southwest	PHX 08:26	OAK 10:30	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3228 Southwest	PHX 09:51	OAK 11:46	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3230 Southwest	PHX 21:41	OAK 23:40	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4412 Southwest	PHX 15:40	OAK 17:35	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1133 Southwest	PHX 12:03	OAK 13:56	16%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON