Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 893 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 893 PHX 08:25 → OKC 12:39 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4447 PHX 17:33 → OKC 21:37 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 893 Southwest	PHX 08:25	OKC 12:39	10%	2%	0.4%	no record
AA 6253 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 08:55	OKC 13:27	13%	4%	0.5%	89%
WN 3232 Southwest	PHX 11:20	OKC 15:33	16%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 4447 Southwest	PHX 17:33	OKC 21:37	28%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON