Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3236 at 08:55 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 3236 PHX 08:55 → ONT 10:08 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1666 PHX 17:18 → ONT 18:46 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3236 Southwest	PHX 08:55	ONT 10:08	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 2661 American Flight history →	PHX 10:59	ONT 12:30	11%	3%	0.6%	83%
WN 692 Southwest	PHX 12:53	ONT 14:07	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 3185 Southwest	PHX 16:14	ONT 17:34	15%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1516 Southwest	PHX 20:04	ONT 21:22	15%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 1666 American Flight history →	PHX 17:18	ONT 18:46	18%	5%	0.6%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON