Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 3062 at 05:04 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–15%.

Safest bet that day AA 3062 PHX 05:04 → ORD 10:19 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 435 PHX 15:26 → ORD 20:51 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3062 American Flight history →	PHX 05:04	ORD 10:19	5%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 356 United Flight history →	PHX 06:50	ORD 12:28	5%	2%	0.5%	88%
UA 2823 United	PHX 00:05	ORD 05:22	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 2765 American Flight history →	PHX 07:00	ORD 12:51	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
AA 1148 American Flight history →	PHX 01:15	ORD 06:50	7%	3%	0.6%	79%
AA 2201 American Flight history →	PHX 19:13	ORD 00:43	11%	3%	0.7%	90%
UA 1124 United Flight history →	PHX 08:51	ORD 14:21	11%	3%	0.5%	61%
AA 2474 American	PHX 08:29	ORD 14:01	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1748 United Flight history →	PHX 11:12	ORD 16:54	12%	3%	0.5%	78%
UA 2652 United	PHX 11:19	ORD 16:46	13%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 332 American Flight history →	PHX 10:05	ORD 15:38	14%	3%	0.6%	74%
AA 2569 American	PHX 17:59	ORD 23:37	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1842 United Flight history →	PHX 13:07	ORD 18:34	15%	3%	0.5%	83%
UA 1402 United	PHX 16:38	ORD 22:08	15%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 695 American Flight history →	PHX 16:33	ORD 22:07	15%	3%	0.6%	82%
AA 338 American Flight history →	PHX 12:15	ORD 18:08	16%	4%	0.6%	70%
AA 435 American Flight history →	PHX 15:26	ORD 20:51	19%	5%	0.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON