Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: AS 564 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–26%.

Safest bet that day AS 564 PHX 07:06 → PDX 09:51 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4456 PHX 19:51 → PDX 22:32 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 564 Alaska	PHX 07:06	PDX 09:51	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 742 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 14:04	PDX 16:46	10%	3%	0.6%	87%
AA 2684 American	PHX 10:40	PDX 13:31	12%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 369 Alaska	PHX 08:06	PDX 10:52	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 511 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 11:38	PDX 14:03	13%	3%	0.6%	89%
WN 1303 Southwest	PHX 10:13	PDX 12:53	14%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 1625 American Flight history →	PHX 17:55	PDX 20:46	16%	5%	0.6%	83%
WN 1780 Southwest	PHX 15:56	PDX 18:33	21%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 4456 Southwest	PHX 19:51	PDX 22:32	26%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON