Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3047 at 06:52 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 3047 PHX 06:52 → PHL 14:39 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 357 PHX 16:01 → PHL 23:49 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3047 American	PHX 06:52	PHL 14:39	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1242 American	PHX 00:08	PHL 07:49	7%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2301 American Flight history →	PHX 23:06	PHL 06:53	8%	3%	0.7%	93%
AA 2300 American Flight history →	PHX 08:54	PHL 16:42	14%	3%	0.6%	86%
AA 2721 American Flight history →	PHX 13:07	PHL 20:58	19%	5%	0.6%	75%
AA 357 American	PHX 16:01	PHL 23:49	22%	6%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHX 14:19 → MSP 19:10DL 2208	1h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 20:25 → PHL 23:56DL 2703	6h 37m	94%	85%
Delta Details →	PHX 15:14 → ATL 21:54DL 796	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	6h 45m	91%	82%
American Details →	PHX 05:00 → CLT 12:09AA 3009	53m Charlotte	CLT 13:02 → PHL 14:50AA 2573	6h 50m	93%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON