tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 13:51, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Pittsburgh on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 185 Southwest PHX 14:51 PIT 21:54 25% 5% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PHX 01:15 → ORD 06:50AA 1148 2h 58m Chicago ORD 09:48 → PIT 12:26AA 4467 · flown by Republic 8h 11m 99% 93%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:07 → ORD 18:33UA 1842 2h 47m Chicago ORD 21:20 → PIT 23:59UA 3464 · flown by Republic 7h 52m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → PHX 12:38 → DTW 19:15DL 1070 3h 28m Detroit DTW 22:43 → PIT 23:59DL 5369 · flown by Endeavor 8h 21m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947 1h 25m Detroit DTW 14:13 → PIT 15:24DL 4640 · flown by Endeavor 6h 24m 98% 91%
AmericanDetails → PHX 09:54 → JFK 17:59AA 2339 2h 31m New York JFK 20:30 → PIT 22:27AA 4611 · flown by Republic 9h 33m 99% 91%
AmericanDetails → PHX 12:15 → ORD 18:08AA 338 2h 45m Chicago ORD 20:53 → PIT 23:33AA 4527 · flown by Republic 8h 18m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 1h 26m Minneapolis MSP 13:16 → PIT 16:29DL 4971 · flown by Endeavor 6h 44m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535 2h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → PIT 16:30DL 1188 7h 30m 98% 90%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON