Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 12–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 6246 PHX 08:15 → PSP 09:31 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1884 PHX 10:47 → PSP 12:02 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 6246 SkyWest	PHX 08:15	PSP 09:31	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 6406 SkyWest	PHX 15:05	PSP 16:25	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 4922 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 17:01	PSP 18:21	18%	4%	0.6%	72%
AA 1884 American Flight history →	PHX 10:47	PSP 12:02	18%	5%	0.7%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON