tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 3929 American flown by Envoy Flight history → PHX 11:40 RDM 14:09 9% 2% 0.6% 87%
AA 3597 American flown by Envoy Flight history → PHX 16:40 RDM 19:07 11% 3% 0.6% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Redmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 17:05 → SLC 19:43DL 1738 3h 24m Salt Lake City SLC 23:07 → RDM 23:58DL 3756 · flown by SkyWest 6h 53m 99% 95%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535 2h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → RDM 11:35DL 3727 · flown by SkyWest 5h 35m 98% 94%
DeltaDetails → PHX 15:54 → SEA 19:02DL 2449 2h 33m Seattle SEA 21:35 → RDM 22:57DL 4047 · flown by SkyWest 7h 03m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 2h 23m Denver DEN 11:15 → RDM 12:53UA 2082 6h 53m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → PHX 11:03 → SFO 13:10UA 2619 3h 28m San Francisco SFO 16:38 → RDM 18:24UA 2418 7h 21m 99% 85%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 16:32 → SEA 19:17AS 401 3h 36m Seattle SEA 22:53 → RDM 23:59AS 2094 · flown by Horizon 7h 27m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:22 → DEN 16:11UA 709 3h 18m Denver DEN 19:29 → RDM 21:05UA 1588 7h 43m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:55 → SFO 09:02UA 2449 1h 26m San Francisco SFO 10:28 → RDM 12:12UA 2153 5h 17m 93% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON