tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Raleigh/Durham on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4713 Southwest PHX 10:55 RDU 18:06 23% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PHX 01:15 → ORD 06:50AA 1148 3h 08m Chicago ORD 09:58 → RDU 13:05AA 4354 · flown by Republic 8h 50m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550 7h 35m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947 3h 14m Detroit DTW 16:02 → RDU 17:47DL 1407 8h 47m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → PHX 12:38 → DTW 19:15DL 1070 2h 25m Detroit DTW 21:40 → RDU 23:25DL 2839 7h 47m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 2h 30m Minneapolis MSP 14:20 → RDU 17:51DL 2699 8h 06m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → PHX 07:00 → ORD 12:51AA 2765 3h 27m Chicago ORD 16:18 → RDU 19:13AA 4503 · flown by Republic 9h 13m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 57m Denver DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16UA 2269 6h 16m 95% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 19:25 → RDU 20:57DL 1518 7h 43m 98% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PHX 15:26 → ORD 20:51AA 435 57m Chicago ORD 21:48 → RDU 00:49 +1AA 600 6h 23m 73% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON