Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1643 at 08:26 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 1643 PHX 08:26 → RNO 10:23 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2869 PHX 17:58 → RNO 19:49 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1643 Southwest	PHX 08:26	RNO 10:23	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 4165 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 13:57	RNO 15:51	9%	3%	0.6%	79%
OO 6343 SkyWest	PHX 07:22	RNO 09:22	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 830 Southwest	PHX 10:39	RNO 12:27	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1437 American Flight history →	PHX 10:23	RNO 12:24	11%	3%	0.6%	85%
WN 3246 Southwest	PHX 20:32	RNO 22:24	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2869 American	PHX 17:58	RNO 19:49	23%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON