tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: WN 1885 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1885 Southwest PHX 07:50 SDF 14:19 8% 2% 0.5% no record
WN 4503 Southwest PHX 12:08 SDF 18:23 22% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PHX 08:30 → DCA 15:59AA 3191 3h 46m Washington DCA 19:45 → SDF 21:40AA 4672 · flown by Republic 10h 10m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 1h 54m Atlanta ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195 6h 57m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:07 → ORD 18:34UA 1842 2h 51m Chicago ORD 21:25 → SDF 23:59UA 3659 · flown by Republic 7h 52m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:13 → ORD 14:42UA 1124 3h 08m Chicago ORD 17:50 → SDF 20:23UA 3598 · flown by Republic 8h 10m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → PHX 06:10 → DFW 10:42AA 1018 3h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:06 → SDF 17:27AA 3629 · flown by Envoy 8h 17m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 53m Denver DEN 09:45 → SDF 14:28UA 1479 5h 28m 95% 89%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 1h 42m Minneapolis MSP 13:32 → SDF 16:25DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest 6h 40m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 20:03 → SDF 21:32DL 2842 8h 18m 99% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON