Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 23 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2449 at 15:54 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–36%.

Safest bet that day DL 2449 PHX 15:54 → SEA 19:02 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest WN 3267 PHX 19:49 → SEA 22:40 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2449 Delta Flight history →	PHX 15:54	SEA 19:02	10%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 2374 Delta Flight history →	PHX 09:19	SEA 12:30	11%	3%	0.6%	91%
AA 3934 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 14:20	SEA 17:30	12%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 2419 Delta Flight history →	PHX 14:35	SEA 17:29	12%	3%	0.6%	94%
AA 4307 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 17:55	SEA 21:05	12%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 2444 Delta Flight history →	PHX 06:43	SEA 09:42	13%	3%	0.7%	95%
AS 605 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 05:56	SEA 08:57	14%	3%	0.7%	93%
DL 1570 Delta Flight history →	PHX 06:59	SEA 10:05	15%	3%	0.6%	95%
DL 2442 Delta Flight history →	PHX 19:54	SEA 22:51	15%	4%	0.7%	82%
AS 731 Alaska	PHX 11:30	SEA 15:19	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
MQ 4207 Envoy	PHX 10:35	SEA 13:29	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4081 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 07:40	SEA 10:57	19%	3%	0.6%	97%worse than usual
AA 3793 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 07:20	SEA 10:36	20%	3%	0.6%	86%
AS 603 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 09:00	SEA 12:02	23%	3%	0.6%	89%worse than usual
AS 1348 Alaska	PHX 19:18	SEA 22:09	23%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 401 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 16:32	SEA 19:17	25%	3%	0.6%	89%worse than usual
AS 611 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 14:38	SEA 17:26	25%	3%	0.6%	81%
AS 637 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 12:14	SEA 14:50	28%	3%	0.6%	86%worse than usual
WN 800 Southwest	PHX 08:15	SEA 11:08	30%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2474 Southwest	PHX 09:22	SEA 12:17	30%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 645 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 07:20	SEA 10:29	30%	3%	0.6%	85%worse than usual
WN 3258 Southwest	PHX 14:42	SEA 17:38	35%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 3267 Southwest	PHX 19:49	SEA 22:40	36%	9%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON