Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 12 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 5985 PHX 15:01 → SFO 17:13 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1191 PHX 14:02 → SFO 16:11 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5985 SkyWest	PHX 15:01	SFO 17:13	11%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 2449 United Flight history →	PHX 06:56	SFO 09:08	11%	4%	0.6%	25%
UA 2619 United Flight history →	PHX 11:03	SFO 13:10	13%	4%	0.6%	66%
AA 3199 American Flight history →	PHX 12:10	SFO 14:17	14%	5%	0.6%	31%
WN 3260 Southwest	PHX 11:09	SFO 13:07	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2421 American Flight history →	PHX 16:59	SFO 19:08	16%	5%	0.7%	69%
AA 6430 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 07:41	SFO 09:55	17%	5%	0.6%	94%worse than usual
WN 974 Southwest	PHX 20:01	SFO 22:02	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 1488 Southwest	PHX 16:11	SFO 18:13	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 693 United	PHX 19:29	SFO 21:37	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2860 American Flight history →	PHX 14:05	SFO 16:05	19%	6%	0.6%	48%
F9 1191 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 14:02	SFO 16:11	19%	9%	0.8%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON