Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 8–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3581 PHX 09:17 → SJC 11:13 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2094 PHX 16:30 → SJC 18:34 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3581 Southwest	PHX 09:17	SJC 11:13	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 3940 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 11:27	SJC 13:26	8%	3%	0.8%	95%
WN 962 Southwest	PHX 12:04	SJC 14:04	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3264 Southwest	PHX 15:44	SJC 17:43	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 427 Southwest	PHX 20:06	SJC 21:59	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2094 American Flight history →	PHX 16:30	SJC 18:34	14%	4%	0.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON