Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 1535 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–12%.

Safest bet that day DL 1535 PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 807 PHX 15:58 → SLC 18:30 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1535 Delta Flight history →	PHX 06:00	SLC 08:37	3%	2%	0.6%	97%
WN 2483 Southwest	PHX 07:32	SLC 10:05	4%	1%	0.4%	no record
AA 6422 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 08:39	SLC 11:37	6%	3%	0.4%	91%
AA 4968 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 19:57	SLC 22:39	6%	3%	0.5%	86%
DL 1431 Delta Flight history →	PHX 13:20	SLC 15:58	6%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 1738 Delta Flight history →	PHX 17:05	SLC 19:43	6%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 1447 Delta Flight history →	PHX 09:45	SLC 12:21	7%	2%	0.6%	95%
AA 6462 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 10:51	SLC 13:31	7%	3%	0.4%	100%
WN 3995 Southwest	PHX 11:37	SLC 14:11	9%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 4121 Southwest	PHX 13:04	SLC 15:35	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 1972 Southwest	PHX 20:11	SLC 22:43	12%	2%	0.5%	no record
F9 2526 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 16:13	SLC 19:05	12%	5%	0.8%	85%
WN 807 Southwest	PHX 15:58	SLC 18:30	14%	2%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON