Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 736 PHX 07:29 → SMF 09:26 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1393 PHX 19:58 → SMF 21:56 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 736 Southwest	PHX 07:29	SMF 09:26	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
MQ 4070 Envoy	PHX 14:08	SMF 16:24	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 4913 SkyWest	PHX 07:34	SMF 09:38	6%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3272 Southwest	PHX 09:06	SMF 11:08	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 1677 American Flight history →	PHX 10:01	SMF 12:13	10%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 464 American	PHX 18:15	SMF 20:23	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3877 Southwest	PHX 14:52	SMF 16:52	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1297 Southwest	PHX 17:59	SMF 20:01	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1393 Southwest	PHX 19:58	SMF 21:56	11%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON