Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 3280 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 3280 PHX 05:59 → STL 11:03 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 890 PHX 15:34 → STL 20:34 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3280 Southwest	PHX 05:59	STL 11:03	2%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 3281 Southwest	PHX 08:18	STL 13:10	7%	1%	0.4%	no record
AA 2660 American	PHX 12:31	STL 17:47	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3282 Southwest	PHX 13:37	STL 18:29	15%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 1574 Southwest	PHX 17:30	STL 22:20	15%	3%	0.4%	no record
AA 890 American Flight history →	PHX 15:34	STL 20:34	16%	4%	0.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON