Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3544 at 12:40 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 3544 PHX 12:40 → TUL 17:09 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 1715 PHX 17:28 → TUL 21:48 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3544 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 12:40	TUL 17:09	13%	3%	0.6%	89%
WN 3285 Southwest	PHX 10:39	TUL 15:09	14%	2%	0.4%	no record
MQ 3645 Envoy	PHX 13:36	TUL 18:03	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1715 Southwest	PHX 17:28	TUL 21:48	30%	5%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON