Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: MQ 3649 at 07:16 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–25%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3649 PHX 07:16 → TUS 08:14 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4381 PHX 20:19 → TUS 21:11 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3649 Envoy	PHX 07:16	TUS 08:14	7%	3%	0.2%	no record
AA 3958 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 07:23	TUS 08:23	7%	2%	0.2%	90%
AA 1559 American	PHX 09:00	TUS 10:09	14%	6%	1.2%	no record
AA 6367 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 09:21	TUS 10:26	15%	6%	0.5%	83%
AA 3319 American	PHX 10:15	TUS 11:15	15%	6%	1.2%	no record
OO 6514 SkyWest	PHX 13:20	TUS 14:22	17%	8%	0.5%	no record
OO 6205 SkyWest	PHX 15:34	TUS 16:30	18%	6%	0.5%	no record
OO 6294 SkyWest	PHX 13:47	TUS 14:46	18%	8%	0.5%	no record
OO 6332 SkyWest	PHX 12:56	TUS 13:51	19%	9%	0.5%	no record
AA 6457 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 18:46	TUS 19:46	20%	8%	0.6%	81%
WN 971 Southwest	PHX 12:38	TUS 13:31	21%	5%	0.4%	no record
WN 2745 Southwest	PHX 12:40	TUS 13:30	22%	5%	0.4%	no record
AA 3257 American	PHX 15:53	TUS 16:53	24%	6%	1.0%	no record
WN 4381 Southwest	PHX 20:19	TUS 21:11	25%	8%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON